In the Footsteps of Georgian Dream's “Unprecedented Peace”
Date: 30 September 2024
The Georgian Elections Observatory (GEO) is a short-term initiative focused on fact-checking pre-election narratives leading up to the crucial parliamentary elections on October 26. What sets this project apart from traditional fact-checking platforms is that it doesn't just address specific claims but examines entire narratives, offering political analysis alongside fact-checking and media analysis. This project is powered by the Fojo Swedish Media Institute in partnership with Investigative Media Lab (IML) and the UG Security, Politicy, & Nationalism Research Center (UGSPN).
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in these stories do not necessarily reflect those of the listed organizations.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
As Georgia approaches the elections, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, touts “unprecedented peace” as its main achievement, yet the grim facts beyond the political rhetoric tell a different story.
One month before the elections, Georgian Dream’s new billboards appeared on the streets of the Georgian capital Tbilisi. This time, the authorities chose to visualize familiar propaganda messages by using images of buildings and churches destroyed by Russian bombs in Ukraine. According to the billboards, the people of Georgia now face a stark choice between war and peace, with war symbolized by the opposition and peace embodied by Georgian Dream.
“This will be an election between peace and war. The guarantor of peace, of course, is Georgian Dream,” said Irakli Kirtskhalia, deputy chairman of the Georgian Dream parliamentary faction, in August.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that comparing war and peace today is a matter of principle. “It is fundamental for society to make the right choice, as depicted in these images—something that has been avoided at great cost,” Kobakhidze told reporters on September 27.
The topic of peace has become particularly prominent since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since February 2022, the word “peace” has frequently appeared in political speeches by the government and its affiliated groups. The ruling party continually reminds voters how Georgian Dream has successfully maintained unprecedented peace and stability in the country.
“From the very first day of our historic victory on October 1, 2012, an unprecedented twelve years of continuous peace were established in our country—something that no other leader has achieved since the restoration of independence. We had no wars and lost no additional territories," said Irakli Gharibashvili, the chairman of Georgian Dream, during a regional campaign event in Gori.
Examining the facts behind the “unprecedented peace” rhetoric
During these twelve years of "unprecedented peace" under Georgian Dream’s rule, occupying forces have killed Georgian citizens, kidnapped thousands, and illegally appropriated millions of square meters of land. Barbed wire now divides residential areas and cemeteries. Many have lost their homes and sources of income, and access to quality healthcare and medications remains severely limited.
Creeping occupation, abduction, and a struggle for survival: this is the daily life of those residing near the occupation line. Amid these harsh realities, the government appears largely powerless, leaving citizens utterly vulnerable.
Tamaz Ginturi is one of the latest victims of the occupation forces in Georgia. The fifty-eight-year-old Georgian citizen was killed by Russian forces in November 2023, shot twice in the back after lighting candles at the Lomisi temple. His companion, Levan Dotiashvili, was kidnapped.
In 2018, Russian border guards declared the Church of St. George of Lomisi to be occupied, forbidding residents of Mejvriskhevi, Zerti, and Bershueti from approaching the church where they once prayed. The occupying authorities sealed the church door and covered it with construction foam.
A few weeks after the murder of Tamaz Ginturi, another Georgian citizen fell victim to the occupation regime, this time in occupied Abkhazia. On December 9, 2023, forty-three-year-old Vitaly Karbaya was severely beaten by members of the so-called “Abkhaz militia” near the Gali market. Vitaly, who suffered broken ribs, died the following day in a hospital in Sukhumi.
In 2022, Gennady Bestaev died after being transported from Tskhinvali prison to Tbilisi in an unconscious state. He had received a three-year prison sentence for crossing the occupation line, even though the barbed wire of the occupation regime cut through his yard.
Prior to this, four others lost their lives due to the actions of the occupation regime: Davit Basharuli in 2014, Goga Otkhozoria in 2016, Archil Tatunashvili in 2018, and Irakli Kvaratskhelia in 2019.
According to official data, in just the last eleven years, Russian occupation forces have illegally kidnapped at least 2,418 citizens of Georgia.
Official data on the extent of land appropriated by the Russian forces through creeping occupation remains unknown, as the government does not publicly comment on it. However, according to incomplete data from Davit Katsarava, head of the anti-occupation movement Strength in Unity, Russian occupiers have seized over 60 million square meters of land in Shida Kartli since 2012.
Citizens of Georgia living beyond the occupation line face difficult conditions. Medicines and high-quality medical services are generally unavailable to them. Given their often-complicated health issues, rapid patient transport is vital, but crossing the occupation line is anything but easy.
In 2023, a one-and-a-half-year-old child died while being transported from Akhalgori to Tbilisi after delays in obtaining permission to cross the occupation line. there were issues with the child’s birth certificate. Ultimately, the parents were able to bring the child to Georgian-controlled territory through the Odzisi-Mosabruni checkpoint. Tragically, the child died near Mtskheta, on the way to Tbilisi.
Thousands of illegal actions and crimes committed by the occupation regime in Georgia almost always go unanswered by the Georgian Dream government. This inaction stems from a policy of non-provocation and a cautious approach toward Russia.
The “Otkhozoria-Tatunashvili list,” established after Archil Tatunashvili suffered over one hundred injuries and was tortured to death in Tskhinvali prison, is also a subject of criticism. This list is intended to include individuals involved in the kidnapping, torture, and murder of Georgian citizens. However, the government has not responded to the opposition’s request to add representatives of the Russian government to the list. Additionally, those suspected of the brutal murders of Ginturi and Karbaya are also not included.
For those living near the occupation line—people constantly at risk of illegal detention, kidnapping, and loss of their homes and livelihoods—the government’s only response is a policy of caution and non-provocation toward Russia. Locals argue that the current situation, where Georgian citizens can be killed or kidnapped at any moment and the occupation line can shift at any time, cannot be considered peace. For many, what Georgian Dream calls “peace” today is nothing of the sort, but rather complete adaptation to the aggressive policies of the occupation regime.
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
The Utility of War-Fear Manipulation
If we look at the process of meta-narrative formation by Georgian Dream (GD)—which, in a nutshell, can be framed as “without us (GD) in power, there will be war in Georgia”—it becomes strikingly evident how structurally well-developed the GD information campaign is, with its messages and contextual focuses uniquely serving a particular target group (audience). Starting with the general claim that all competing political parties will push Georgia onto a path to war, the logic of their argumentation continues with attributing the risk of war to a mythical “global war party,” which is supposedly difficult to attribute to a particular country or institution, but is powerful enough to shape the global policy of the West. Consequently, Georgia’s wish to join the EU and other Western institution is presented as an act of Georgian good will, in which no general conditions of membership will apply to the country: that is, Georgia will join the EU only with “dignity.” If this is not possible and the EU insists on enforcing its rules, then Georgia, according to GD, will choose to preserve its “dignity,” refuse the membership, and maintain a strategic balancing position between major powers including the West, Russia, and China. In this way, the “war versus peace” narrative turns into an effective “information trident,” with which the triggered psychological fear of war is accompanied by the political promise of future membership in EU and NATO, and the invocation of “practical benefits or losses” to be compensated if necessary, via strategic non-alignment. From this perspective, the GD approach—while not perfect—truly appears the best available, better than anything offered before.
Despite the fact that GD's fear-mongering efforts slowly came to public attention immediately after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it only became evident in late 2023 and early 2024that GD had failed in pushing its previously chosen primary message of anti-LGBT propaganda: as a result, it quickly jumped on war-fear messaging by significantly intensifying its information campaign. This can partly be attributed to the failed efforts by Georgian Dream to sabotage Georgia’s EU candidacy status by not implementing the Charles Michel plan (and the respective nine steps outlined by the Commission), along with the European Union’s decision to grant candidate status. It appears that GD was looking for a much “stronger”move that would, on the one hand, significantly alienate the EU, thereby effectively blocking the country’s membership negotiations; on the other hand, any such move had to provide a formal justification of noncompliance for the domestic audience and create the twin psychological and political dilemma of “no to GD means war” for the upcoming parliamentary elections. This move was found when the ruling party introduced the so-called Russian Law (officially the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence), which saw the vast majority of public organizations and NGOs labeled as foreign agents, receiving foreign financing and pushing for the supposed Western agenda of opening a second front: that is, starting war against Russia.
It is evident that there is no other topic left powerful enough to capitalize upon and mobilize support. GD abandoned all the other issue areas on which political parties typically focus to formulate their electoral programs and promises. From the perspective of rationality, the GD decision can be justified, since the party has nothing to present to the electorate and no serious achievements to be proud of. Therefore, due to the significant decline in GD’s popularity since the adoption of the Russian Law, the persistent popular belief that joining the EU is a necessity, and the fact that any other (economic, social, etc.) electoral topic could be very damaging to GD itself, the “preservation of peace” message remains the only one that can potentially dominate and trump all the others. This assumption appears even more convincing as, much like Russian propaganda, the GD information campaign relies heavily on half-truths, manipulation of facts, and simple wordings that leave strong psychological imprints and affect basic perceptions. For instance claims that a “global war party” is the major culprit (not Russia) in starting the war in Ukraine finds a fertile ground in Georgia and is further pushed by GD, as it points to the West and its inability to provide enough military support to defeat Russia, alongside its unwillingness to accept Ukraine and Georgia into NATO to prevent and stop Russian aggression, as clear evidence of Western weakness, manipulation of Ukraine, and intention to keep the war going.