Trump as US President: What Does (not) Change for Georgia?
Date: 12 November 2024
The representatives of Georgian Dream met Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 American presidential elections with great enthusiasm. They hope the Trump administration can reset the tense relationship between Georgia and the US. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated Trump on his victory: “Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his decisive victory in the election. I am confident that President Trump’s leadership will promote peace globally and in our region as well as ensure [a] restart in US-Georgia relations.” Likewise, the leader of Georgian Dream’s parliamentary faction, Mamuka Mdinaradze, said that “according to the Georgian pseudo-liberals, the American people will wake up in Chelyabinsk!… Trump’s campaign was built on a narrative of peace and family values, openly declaring that a man is a man and a woman is a woman.”
One of the members of the Georgian Dream, Nino Tsilosani questioned the bipartisanship of America's foreign priorities and stated that,
"Every declaration or resolution passed by the Georgian Dream recently, was criticized for protecting family values and we were asked to cancel the law "On Family Values". This is so unacceptable and inconsistent with the policy announced by Trump himself and it will bring a great deal of convergence to our common interests. This relaxes and revises our relations. This will be a transition to a new partnership stage."
Regarding Trump's presidency, similar rhetoric was repeated by Georgian Ambassador to the US, Davit Zalkaliani in an interview with TV Imedi, "relations with US will be overloaded, I am feeling only positive. I am sure the strategic partnership between Georgia and America will gain more dynamism."
The excitement of Georgian Dream after Trump’s victory is caused by his right-wing conservative and often Eurosceptic rhetoric. The campaign of the president-elect was characterized by homophobic and transphobic messages, a promise to end the war in Ukraine, and attacks on Euro-Atlantic structures. The Georgian Dream narrative on LGBTQ+ rights, the war in Ukraine, and Euroscepticism matches the rhetoric of Trump; however, it is interesting to what extent this rhetoric will be beneficial for Georgian Dream.
The Republican Party and Georgia
In the US, the issue of Georgia’s democracy is truly a bipartisan interest. The democratic backsliding of Georgian Dream was followed by critical reactions from both the Democratic and Republican parties.
In May 2024, in response to Georgia’s adoption of the Law on “Transparency of Foreign Influence,” Republican Joe Wilson initiated the Act for “Mobilizing and Enhancing Georgia’s Options for Building Accountability, Resilience, and Independence” (MEGOBARI) in the House of Representatives. This act aims to sanction those officials responsible for Georgia’s democratic decline. Wilson is particularly critical of and has initiated sanctions against him personally. Wilson was publicly endorsed by Donald Trump, and he retained his seat in the November 5 election. The MEGOBARI Act is also co-sponsored by Republicans Austin Scott, Don Bacon, and Mike Lawler, all of whom won seats in the legislative branch.
The “Georgian People’s Act,” which also calls for sanctioning those responsible for democratic backsliding, is a bipartisan initiative, initiated by two Democratic and two Republican senators. One of the initiators, Republican Pete Ricketts, won a seat in the Senate. In addition, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, supported sanctioning Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2020.
Further proof of US bipartisanship towards Georgia is the letter issued during the adoption of the law on “transparency of foreign influence” in 2024, where fourteen senators—six Republican and eight Democratic—called on the Georgian government to withdraw the law.
Moreover, it is unlikely that America-centric Trump will approve of Georgian Dream’s US-hostile rhetoric and its harsh criticism of American top officials, including former ambassador Kelly Degnan, appointed by Donald Trump.
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
The decisive victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections was met with incredible relief and acclaim by Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream. Its top mouthpieces made plentiful posts on social media and conducted numerous interviews on television with words of happiness and great expectations for the normalization of bilateral relations. In fact, GD always tried to attribute the major failures of US policy towards Georgia to the Biden administration. The party openly pointed to the possibility of more positive policy revision or acceptance of the current status quo in Georgia if the Trump administration came to power.
Since the option of Trump in the White House is no longer a possibility but a fact, the strategic gamble of the Georgian ruling party appears to be bearing fruit. However, nothing can be said decisively for the moment; a number of factors could play a crucial role in turning US policy towards Georgia in a more repressive direction. First of all, Georgia is categorically not in Trump’s mind: it is not among the top or even second-tier priorities in the agenda of the new administration. Although Trump once had a personal interaction with the former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, the “Georgian issue” will not be a topic for Trump personally nor in terms of his administration’s agenda-setting; instead the Middle East, Ukraine, China, trans-Atlantic relations and migration are the key issues that his team will begin tackling from November onward. Trump likes to focus on the big picture, and he will be trying to present himself as a major dealmaker and problem-solver. As a businessman who regards politics through the prism of profit-making, Georgia offers little and is less “profitable” to deal with personally. As such, Georgian issues will most likely be delegated to his fellow Republicans in the Senate and House, who already contributed to or significantly shaped existing American policies towards Georgia. In other words, the policies of recent years—such as the MEGOBARI Act and other laws that envisage harsh sanctions (personal and institutional) against the Georgian government and individuals associated with antidemocratic and anti-Western policies, laws, and decisions—will remain in place with a high likelihood of enactment.
The so-called Russian Law (or the Law on Transparency and Foreign Agents), the anti-LGBT law, and the so-called Offshore Law create a fundamental conflict with Georgia’s Western aspirations. Considering the general but rapid democratic backsliding of the country, manifested in the increasingly repressive state apparatus, infringements of personal freedom and rights, as well as systemic state support to individuals accused of massive rights violations, misuse of power, or even collaboration with Russian services, American disagreement with the Georgian Dream government’s current course of action cannot simply vanish. These are institutional and systemic concerns that cannot be solved at a personal (presidential) level in GD’s favor. Even considering this option theoretically, what benefits would President Trump gain in singlehandedly cancelling many of the prior institutional efforts made and getting nothing in return? American interests in the South Caucasus will increasingly be supplanted by European Union priorities, which place even more emphasis on the need for Georgia’s democratic development. This might indicate a decrease in US presence and influence in the region, with a respective increase in the role of big regional players such as Turkey, Russia, and Iran. However, US-EU collaboration in the region will further energize initiatives such as the MEGOBARI Act and the attempts to realign US and EU approaches towards Georgia: in this way, an effective carrot and stick paradigm will arise, with the stick increasingly appearing more real and painful.
The probable development of US-Georgia relations
How is US foreign policy conducted?
The democratic system in the United States maintains a system of checks and balances between the different branches of government. Several institutions are involved in the production of foreign policy, all of which balance each others’ competing ideas and interests. More specifically, foreign policy is conducted by the executive body in the form of the President, the legislative body in the form of the Congress, and, of course, the general population. American foreign policy originates from national interests, expressing America’s perception of the world and the country’s role in it. Public opinion also plays an important role in the production of foreign policy.
In the 2024 elections, as well as seeing their chosen candidate elected President, the Republican Party also won a majority in the Senate, meaning that United States foreign policy will overwhelmingly follow the position of the Republican Party.
When discussing American foreign policy, the concept of bipartisanship is often used. Although the polarization between the Republican and Democratic parties on domestic affairs is intense, the two parties largely agree with each other on foreign policy.
The Chinese factor
Donald Trump’s main competitor in the international arena is China, and the primary focus of his foreign policy is to continue US confrontation with China. According to Trump, to protect the American workforce and reduce the US bilateral trade deficit, aggressive actions must be taken against China.
In recent years, the government of Georgia has become especially close to China. In 2023, a strategic partnership agreement was signed between China and Georgia, and 2024 saw the launch of a visa-free travel regime between the two countries. China’s economic influence is growing significantly in Georgia. A with a dubious reputation will construct the new port of Anaklia, an important strategic facility for the region. The Trump administration was also interested in the new Anaklia port during the Republican’s previous presidential term. Additionally, there have been reports that Irakli Kobakhidze attempted to meet with Trump during his visit to the United States, but the meeting did not take place.
It is also important to note that Georgian Dream has increasingly moved closer to Iran, which has particularly tense relations with the Trump administration. It is unlikely that the Trump administration will wish to reset its relations with Georgia while the country is approaching China and Iran.
Regional policy
If the speculation about Trump’s isolationist foreign policy is justified, and Eastern Europe and the Caucasus have lost their strategic significance for the US, Russian influence in the region will increase significantly. Russia’s advance might assist Bidzina Ivanishvili’s government, which is associated with the Kremlin, but it will cause serious discontent in Georgian society. According to the latest public opinion polls, Georgia’s aspirations for Western integration and antagonism towards Russia remain high.