The Question of Legitimacy in Georgian Elections: Orban vs. the Rest of the West
Date: 5 November 2024
The Georgian Elections Observatory (GEO) is a short-term initiative focused on fact-checking pre-election narratives leading up to the crucial parliamentary elections on October 26. What sets this project apart from traditional fact-checking platforms is that it doesn't just address specific claims but examines entire narratives, offering political analysis alongside fact-checking and media analysis. This project is powered by the Fojo Swedish Media Institute in partnership with Investigative Media Lab (IML) and the UG Security, Politicy, & Nationalism Research Center (UGSPN).
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in these stories do not necessarily reflect those of the listed organizations.
On October 26, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. According to data from the Central Election Commission (CEC), voter turnout reached 58.94%, with 2,060,412 voters participating. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, won the majority of votes, securing 53.93%.
While Georgian Dream celebrated its victory, opposition parties, along with President Salome Zurabishvili, declared the elections illegitimate. They refused to enter parliament, with some opposition leaders also threatening to close the party lists. The opposition has demanded new elections under international administration.
Only eight countries— Hungary, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, China, Venezuela, Iran, and United Arab Emirates —congratulated the Georgian Dream government on its victory. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the only European Union leader to do so, stating:
"Congratulations to Prime Minister Kobakhidze and the Georgian Dream party on their overwhelming victory at the parliamentary elections today. The people of Georgia know what is best for their country, and made their voice heard today!"
Following this congratulation, Orbán visited Tbilisi on October 28 and remarked during a joint briefing: “I have observed the controversy following the election results, and I can confidently say that no one has claimed these elections or their outcomes were undemocratic.”
However, despite Orbán’s statement, the elections were met with widespread international criticism.
European Members of Parliament (MEPs) and their Canadian counterparts issued a joint statement, declaring that the election was “neither free nor fair” and that the EU “cannot recognize this result.” Additionally, the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a reevaluation of relations with Georgia and called for an investigation into the irregularities observed by international monitors.
Sweden followed suit, suspending cooperation with Georgia in light of the reported election fraud. The Swedish Minister of Foreign Trade and International Development Cooperation, Benjamin Dousa, announced that the Swedish government had decided to halt cooperation, noting that Sweden is one of Georgia’s largest donors, providing nearly $19 million in aid annually.
Similarly, Denmark’s foreign minister expressed concerns based on observations by the OSCE/ODIHR, highlighting the unequal conditions, pressure, and tension that marred the electoral process.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski and President Andrzej Duda also responded, calling for Europe to stand with the Georgian people and urging the Georgian government to launch an international investigation into the election process.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs expressed solidarity with the Georgian people, stating that the “Georgian people have [a] European dream, [and] no one has the right to steal this dream through intimidation and manipulation.” The Latvian and Lithuanian Ministries of Foreign Affairs issued statements questioning the legitimacy of the elections, while Žygimantas Pavilionis, a member of Lithuania’s parliament, criticized the results, warning that Georgia risks reverting to “the Russian past” instead of moving towards a future of freedom, democracy, and sovereignty within the European Union and NATO.
Estonian parliamentarian Marko Mihkelson added his voice to the Baltic reactions, asserting that the falsification of the election results in Georgia "makes it impossible to recognize their legitimacy. By rigging elections, one cannot join the European Union, but can end up back in Russia's embrace."
Rasa Juknevičienė, a Member of the European Parliament, denounced the pre-election environment as undemocratic, stating: "Desperate to cling to power, Georgian Dream has created a toxic electoral atmosphere far from democracy. The government is blatantly using the Kremlin’s playbook to conduct these elections. We are closely monitoring election observers’ assessments."
Even US President Joe Biden weighed in, noting in an official letter that the elections were marred by abuses of administrative resources, voter intimidation, and coercion. He called on the Georgian government to investigate the violations transparently.
Thus, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s claim that “no one dares to say these elections or their results were undemocratic” is clearly contradicted by numerous international voices.
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
The question of electoral legitimacy lies at the heart of democracy, directly influencing both domestic stability and engagement with international institutions. In Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary elections, claims of systematic electoral fraud and intimidation tactics have cast a shadow over the results, raising significant concerns among both local and international observers. With the ruling party, Georgian Dream, securing a majority vote amid these allegations, the local opposition parties rejected the results, while various other countries refrained from recognizing the outcome. In countries like Georgia, where aspirations for closer ties with the West are tempered, the legitimacy of elections transcends local politics, impacting foreign aid, international alliances, and the country’s reputation on the world stage.
Electoral legitimacy is essential for any government’s credibility and authority. In democratic societies, the perception that elections are fair and representative is foundational. Without it, public trust erodes, leading to social unrest, political polarization, and ultimately a weakened state. This legitimacy is especially crucial for Georgia, a nation balancing its aspirations for European Union (EU) and NATO integration with internal polarization, illiberal tendencies, and external pressures, notably from Russia. When elections lack credibility, as has been alleged in Georgia’s recent parliamentary elections, this can lead to isolation from Western allies and provide openings for foreign powers—particularly Russia—to influence Georgia’s political trajectory.
The West, including the EU and the United States, has sometimes shown leniency toward minor election irregularities, particularly in fledgling democracies transitioning from authoritarian rule. However, this acceptance depends on the scope and nature of these irregularities. Marginal administrative lapses or isolated misconduct may be overlooked if the general integrity of the process remains intact, as stability is often prioritized over immediate perfection. Yet, systemic issues—such as media restrictions, voter intimidation and fraud, and misuse of state resources, as reported by OSCE/ODIHR and reiterated by US President Joe Biden—shift the threshold for Western tolerance. In Georgia’s case, the EU and several Western countries have refrained from recognizing the results due to the severity of the allegations.
Instances of Western non-recognition have often had serious repercussions. In Belarus (2020), where elections were marred by fraud and violence, the EU and US refused to recognize the results, isolating Belarus internationally and leading to its near-total dependence on Russia. Similarly, in Venezuela (2018), Nicolás Maduro’s contested reelection led to widespread rejection, sanctions, and intensified political and economic crises, reinforcing international support for the opposition. In Myanmar (2021), the military’s takeover and nullification of election results drew swift Western condemnation and sanctions, exacerbating Myanmar’s isolation. In Zimbabwe (2008), pressure from the West over contested election results led to a power-sharing deal, illustrating how non-recognition can sometimes drive positive democratic outcomes.
In the Georgian case, the ruling party’s actions are viewed by many through the lens of “Kremlin-style” tactics, not only for the systematic electoral fraud and breach of constitutional rights (to secrecy and the right to vote), but also for misusing allegedly nonpartisan state institutions, stoking fears, and framing elections as battles for national identity or sovereignty. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defense of the election results as expressions of the Georgian people’s will contrasts sharply with statements from Baltic, Nordic, and North American leaders who denounced the process as neither free nor fair.
Contested legitimacy has deep implications. Governments perceived as illegitimate struggle to secure foreign investment, maintain internal stability, and attract international aid, as donors often make their support conditional on adherence to democratic standards. Sweden, one of Georgia’s largest aid providers, has already suspended assistance due to election irregularities, while other nations have hinted at similar actions. This curtails Georgia’s economic outlook and raises the likelihood of further isolation from EU partners, complicating its Western integration. Furthermore, countries like Estonia and Lithuania have voiced concerns that Georgia, without a credible democratic process, risks drifting back toward Russian influence, a prospect that runs counter to the aspirations of many Georgians and pro-Western factions within the country.
Given these high stakes, gathering credible evidence of electoral fraud is essential. Documenting and publicizing irregularities can substantiate claims, support international interventions, and empower civil society to demand accountability. This is especially critical in environments where regime-controlled media may obscure election coverage. Verified evidence helps align international support with democratic initiatives, while pressuring governments to address the grievances of their citizenry.
In conclusion, the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election controversy underscores the vital role of electoral legitimacy in fostering both domestic and international stability. Georgia's credibility, its alliances, and its Euro-Atlantic aspirations depend on transparent and accountable governance. Without these, the nation risks isolation and an uncertain future, jeopardizing its place in the Western-aligned community it seeks to join.